Market Overview and Outlook

International Comparison

The Dubai tolling system is unique, driven by the government’s Road Transport Authority strategy, concession agreement with Salik, and the extent to which digital technology has been applied.

Tolling systems in other countries tend to be less advanced technologically because they were established some time ago; they incorporate barriers and cash or card payments.

Dubai

Dubai is well established as a dynamic, fast growing city with visionary leadership, an ambitious development programme, the 2040 Urban Master Plan, and a growing, increasingly affluent population. Dubai therefore provides Salik with significant opportunities for continued, sustainable growth. In this context, Salik anticipates increases in registered accounts, active vehicles, and activated tags, as well as in ancillary services, notably insurance renewals and parking.

• Dubai’s economy is forecast to grow by 5.0% in 2026, maintaining the same robust pace of expansion seen in 2025, and outpacing global averages;
• Growth will be supported by strong momentum, rising tourism, easing regional tensions, and robust private and public sector activity;
• Population and visitor numbers are increasing, driving demand for real estate and infrastructure;
• Inflation is forecast to remain moderate, with government investment focused on infrastructure and city livability improvements.

Visitor Numbers Will Continue to Rise

Another external factor that is projected to support growth in Dubai next year is the easing of regional tensions and its potential benefit to the tourism sector. With a tentative peace in place in Gaza, and rhetoric between the US and Iran cooling, there is scope for another strong year for Dubai’s tourism trade in 2026 after projected growth of around 5.0% in 2025. In 2025, there were 19.6 million international visitors in Dubai, up 5% year‑on‑year.

Hotel and Conference Expansion

There is already a constant stream of new hospitality launches across restaurants and hotels, and this will be supported by the newly launched Dubai Hotel Incentive Scheme which will reimburse municipality fees on rooms for the first two years of operation. It was also announced in December that hotels in Dubai would begin to offer contactless biometric check‑in services. The expansion of existing conferences and expositions, and the launch of new events, will also encourage tourism growth, while medical tourism is also playing a greater role. This is encouraged by an MOU signed in late 2024 between the Dubai Health Authority and the Dubai Department of Economy and Tourism which aims to develop the sector and has likely already contributed to the 20% year‑on‑year growth in human health & social work activities seen in H1 2025. In 2025, the hotel occupancy rate in Dubai was 81%, up 3% year‑on‑year.

Growth Across Sectors

Strong growth in visitor numbers feeds through to a range of other sectors in Dubai, including hospitality, construction, and travel. While the pace of growth at Dubai International Airport has slowed from the breakneck speed seen following the pandemic, it continues to hit new records and the massive investment going into developing the Al Maktoum International Airport will underpin activity over the next decades, through both its construction and after its eventual launch. 95.2 million passengers passed through Dubai airport (DBX) in 2025, the busiest year on record and 3.1% up year‑on‑year.

Population Growth Inducing Infrastructure Investment

Many of the factors around entertainment and hospitality offerings that are encouraging the strong inflow of tourists are also encouraging rapid growth in the domestic population, alongside national factors such as the low tax regime (especially while taxes are rising in many source countries), high levels of safety and security, and the introduction of the extended stay Golden Visa in the past several years. The population growth has shown no signs of abating in 2025 and rose above four million during the year. The official estimate put the population at 4.04 million as of mid‑November, up 5.4% year‑on‑year and up 18.7% since November 2020, and this chimes with a range of proxy indicators such as mobile phone and utilities subscriptions which all indicate a commensurate increase in customers. We expect that the factors supporting population growth will remain in play in 2026, not least given the stated government target of hitting 5.8 million inhabitants by 2040. This will drive demand for real estate, boosting construction activity, and for a range of other services including education, telecoms, and healthcare.

Real Estate Demand

The rapid rise in the population has boosted demand for property, especially for villas. This has prompted a rise in prices for housing since the pandemic, which has outpaced the other components of the CPI (Consumer Price Index) basket, with headline inflation remaining moderate. Housing inflation has also started to slow in recent months, however, falling to a two and-a-half year low of 5.5% year-on-year in October. Headline CPI inflation is forecast to be 2.5% in 2026, modestly slower than in 2025 (over January to October, price growth averaged 2.8%).

Transport Strategy

The plan promotes access by walking and cycling, combined with local/feeder bus services and Dubai Metro.

This aligns with the broader agenda of enhancing accessibility, fostering multi‑modal transport integration, and driving smart mobility solutions.

Dubai’s Three‑year Budget

In October 2024, His Highness Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum, Vice President and Prime Minister of the UAE and Ruler of Dubai, approved the Government of Dubai’s budget for the fiscal years 2025‑2027. The budget, the largest in the Emirate’s history, encompasses a total expenditure of ↨ 272 billion and projected revenues of ↨ 302 billion. For the fiscal year 2025, expenditures are estimated at ↨ 86.26 billion, with revenues projected at ↨ 97.66 billion. The budget also includes a general reserve of ↨ 5 billion, underscoring the Emirate’s commitment to supporting development projects, stimulating the overall economy, and achieving the ambitious goals of the Dubai Plan 2030, the Dubai Economic Agenda D33, and the Quality‑of‑Life Strategy 2033.

The 2025 budget places a strong emphasis on enhancing social services and improving the quality of life in key sectors such as health, education, culture, and infrastructure.

Outlook for Salik

Salik is well‑positioned to capitalise on Dubai’s robust economic trajectory, with anticipated growth in trips and revenue across its toll network. The Emirate’s economic and population expansion is likely to drive sustained increases in Salik’s registered accounts and active vehicles, bolstering its long‑term prospects.

Salik expects full year 26 total revenue growth to be in the range of 4‑6% year‑on‑year. EBITDA margin is expected in the range of 68‑69%.